neville-chamberlain

US Secretary of State Announces “Peace in our Time.”

Obama: Nuclear deal blocks Iran’s path to bomb In an ironic twist showing that the 60+ years since World War II have only fostered institutional amnesia the US and five other powers buckled and agreed to appease Iran in talks about its nuclear program.  Agreeing that sanctions will be eased in return for Iran behaving US Secretary of State John Kerry channeled former British Prime minister Neville Chamberlain by paraphrasing him and tweeting:

 I just wonder if he is going to wave a piece of paper around when he gets home too?

neville-chamberlainHas the world really forgotten that appeasing tyrannical regimes is a recipe for getting heartbroken and sore?  Why would any sane, rational person think for a minute that Iran would give up the nuclear program they have defended so fiercely over the past decade+ in return for access to less than $10 billion dollars of oil revenue?  My guess is that Iran already has enough fissile material for at least one but probably more bombs and thus it suits them to play nice right now in return for concessions.  Remember, Hitler agreed to only take the Sudetenland in September of 1938, because he was not quite ready for war.  But then he turned around and occupied the rest of Czechoslovakia in spring 1939 and kicked off World War II less than a year later.

Should I be worried about being recalled to active duty to go fight in the next world war?

  • http://www.military-history.us/ Patrick Shrier

    North Korea does not have a fully weaponized device yet and I am not certain they ever will. They can probably not fit theirs on a bomber much less a missile. The Indians are allies, I don’t know what the Pakistanis are but they are not quite allies and not quite enemies. I also suspect that if Iran develops the bomb we will later discover that Pakistani expertise assisted them in the warhead design work.

    All that is beside the point though. Even North Korea does not applaud suicide as a legitimate tactic. If Iran gets the bomb I fully expect them to immediately tart thinking of ways to use it. Death is not a deterrent to someone who only sees salvation and glory in death to begin with. Better to destroy Iran now than wait until they develop or acquire nuclear weapons.

    • Andrew

      I think its Iran that feels surrounded. We overthrew their govt in ’54, and then sent weapons to Saddam to use against their families in the 80s. We also blockaded them in during that war. We have military bases in every direction around their country.

      Not a single Iranian suicide bomber exists that I can think of. Shiites just don’t do this. The 9-11 hijackers were Saudis, our “allies.” Are I incorrect here? We should be deconstructing the Wahhabi movement, these are the ultra violent fanatics that attack us. And they are Sunnis. Both Salafists and Wahhabists are Sunnis. Shiites support Hezbollah, but Hezbollah does not support suicide as a tactic.

      Hezbollah actually condemned Al-Queda for 9-11 for targeting civilians and the two groups are ideological enemies in more ways than one.

      The Iranian Revolutionary Guard are so rich that they don’t want to fight. They’d know that any detonation of a bomb would mean the destruction of their wealth, and they have a lot to lose. They are Platonists in an Islamic sense. They want to defend and promote their worldview.

      Even the Mossad admits that the Iranian regime is not crazy, but fully rational. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ex-mossad-chief-iran-rational-dont-attack-now/

      Plus, how could this country lob a weapon at the US? They don’t have intercontinental ballistic power and aren’t trying to achieve it.

    • http://www.military-history.us/ Patrick Shrier

      So all the talk out of Iran that Israel needs to be wiped off the map is hyperbole and their support for Hezbollah does not really that the Iranians at least tacity support Hezbollah’s founding goal of the destruction of Israel. Sorry, there is nothing rational about wishing for the the destruction of another nation and the extermination of it’s inhabitants.
      I am sure Ian thinks they are rational on their own terms just as I am sure that Mossad has a better handle on their world view than do I. That does not mean that Iran’s geopolitical goals are consistent with regional stability. Iranian rhetoric and actions over just the past decade are enough to convince me that they are seeking increased regional, if not global influence. Given the method of founding of the current government it would be a hard row to hoe to convince that meant anything good for the US or just about anybody else for that matter.

    • Andrew

      One politician said he wants to wipe Israel off the map, I believe it was mistranslated. He is not in office any more. Plus, I don’t see how that can concern Americans unless you are into the hermeneutic of seeing current nations as symbols in Biblical apocalyptic literature. The Palestinians are already being wiped off the map.

      Iran never attacked us a la USS Liberty. They also never threatened to bomb Europe, a la “Samson option.”

      I still see no reason to antagonize the Persians. I find no fault in these people, and I think they will naturally overthrow the Mullahs as soon as possible.

      What I don’t understand is making friends with the Wahhabis. Why we consider the Saudis to be our friends is truly beyond me.

    • http://www.military-history.us/ Patrick Shrier

      I don’t believe I have ever said I consider the Saudis to be our friends in any form anywhere. As to the Iranians, they have had 34 years to overthrow the Mullahs and have not done it yet. Their one big chance in 2009-2010 the dissidents were put down rather bloodily. That is the thing, if you don’t really care about world opinion it is quite easy to stay in power by silencing the opposition.

      I will not even go into the Liberty incident. That is a straw man argument used to hide anti-Semitism. If you dislike someone because of their race come right out and say it. I will tell you right now, I dislike Arabs. I have never met a single Arab, (well, maybe one) who I thought was worth the cost of the bullet I would shoot him with. Most of the Arabs I have met are plain and simple oxygen thieves.

      The Palestinians can go hang for all I care, especially since Palestinian did not exist as an ethnicity until the Jews kicked them out of the Holy Land in ’48. Actually, Palestinian did not exist until Arafat thought it up and has used it as a bludgeon to beat soft-headed westerners ever since. The Palestinians use the strategy of the weak and try to turn world opinion against Israel because they cannot defeat the Israelis and they know it, even with all their equally worthless co-Arabs behind them.

      Lastly, if Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons technology why will they not unequivocally open their facilities up to UN inspections? It is not as f they have the reputation of being honest so a wide open policy of allowing inspections to prove they do not seek nuclear weapons would have stopped sanctions long ago. Where there is smoke, there is usually fire. The West and rest of the world is being perfectly rationale to be skeptical of the claims of a country governed by religious fanatics. Even if most Iranians are not fanatics, their leaders are.

    • Andrew

      If mentioning the USS Liberty is a straw man used to hide Anti-Semitism than disagreeing with gay marriage makes one a closet homosexual, Its the exact same logic.

      Plus, with me, you’d have to use the “self-hating-Jew” argument, even though, nowadays many Jews who disagree with the policies of the Israeli government are increasingly being labeled as “anti-semites” just as people who disagree with affirmative action are “racists.”

      This way of thinking is the downfall of America. It also isolates the fanatics in Tel Aviv that are alienating as many people as possible in the hearts and minds category.

      Now back the USS Liberty. How is this acceptable to do? And how is it acceptable to threaten to bomb Europe?

      Iran will not open their facilities because Israel refuses to do so, and who wants to be treated like a second class citizen? This leads to resentment. We would both be pissed at the West if we were Iranians, too.

      People cannot overthrow a government when it will kill them. The Russians hated the Bolsheviks but didn’t overthrow them. A lot of Americans would like to get rid of the Feds and don’t do anything either.

      Personally, I am a civil disobedience kinda guy, so I will civilly disagree with the Obama administration’s foreign policy if I personally cannot have my questions answered without being accused of thought crimes such as anti-semitism.

      Plus, I see China as a much bigger threat than Iran. I see China as a threat to every man, woman, cat and dog alive.

    • http://www.military-history.us/ Patrick Shrier

      I did not say the attack on the Liberty was acceptable. I said that it is trotted out as an argument for not supporting Israel. In that guise it is a straw man argument as the people usually crying what about the “Liberty” are anti-Semites. I did not call you one above nor do I now. I do expect a better argument than that though. That is sophomoric garbage that is used when there is nothing more substantive. Israel, for all its faults, and they are there, is the only natural ally of the US in the Middle East. It is the only country with democratic institutions and the only one dedicated to the rule of law. Who else in the region should the US align with? I can think of none other than perhaps Jordan and they are an authoritarian monarchy although not as bad as the Saudis.

      Who is threatening to bomb Europe, the Israelis? That is a new one to me.

      I won’t because he won’t is schoolyard argument. Israel is not threatening to destroy anybody, even the Palestinian-Arabs who they would gladly get along with if the Arabs would accept the verdict of the battlefield. It is not the Israelis who are refusing to budge on their demands. In fact, the Israeli have been quite reasonable I think. If I were the Israeli king for a day the West Bank and Gaza Strips would both be cleaned out and razed to the ground. Heck, I probably would have never given back the Sinai if I were them. I find it strange that right f conquest is denied the Israelis. If that is not a legitimate reason to hold territory then Europeans better start packing up and moving into the shadow of the Urals where they all came from. The Turks too for that matter.

      “People cannot overthrow a government when it will kill them.” You mean like the British did to the colonists or the Tsar did to pre revolution dissidents. I would not equate the current federal government with either of your examples although it certainly seems to be getting there.

      I would agree that China is the bigger threat because they aspire to superpower status and hegemony over Asia. That does not mean the Iranian regime is not a threat though. If anything, the closeness of the relationship between Iran, China, and Russia should concern us all. If that is not a match made in hell I don’t know what is.

    • Andrew

      I enjoy this conversation, so don’t be offended if this is the last response from me today, I’ve been awake since 1.30 AM.

      Anyway, about Israel – Yes, they have threatened to bomb Europe, its called “The Samson Option.”

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option#Comments_on_strategy

      Also, they REFUSE to allow UN inspect their nuclear facilities.

      AND – who cares if they are “a democracy,” unless you buy the Francis Fukuyama crap. Democracies DO and HAVE gone to war with one another before.

      They could never have done a single thing if not for American technology that we funnel to them. They are certainly not any braver or wiser than their Arab enemies.

      Plus, if we want to deter an Iranian, Chinese and Russian axis, we shouldn’t drive the Iranians towards the communists like we did with Cuba.

      And if Israel wants to settle where they conquer, than their is no argument against a Neo-Achaemenid empire spread between Samarkand and Cairo.

      Anyway, the last thing I want to say is this – The Middle East is like a beehive without any honey, why do you want to dip your hand into it? These tribal desert cultures have nothing in common with America or Europe. They are just long lasting self-destructing time bombs.

      While I do admire our American ancestors for sticking it to the Britishers (who I historically despise), I don’t think its possible to do this anymore. My Iranian friends have told me horror stories of what happens to people who defect and the Redcoats didn’t have an intellegence infrustructure the way modern states do to infiltrate dissidents.

      The best way to drive the Iranians towards the Chicoms is to overthrow their government (democratically elected, since this is your defense for Israel), back dictators to invade them, surround them with weapons of mass destruction, and then say that Israel can have weapons but you can’t. Then the Iranians will sell the Chinese all of their oil.

      Oh wait, they already do. Our strategy with dealing with Iran is not one out of the pages of Dale Carnegie’s “How to win friends and influence people.”

      So if you hate Persians as well as arabs, just remember that we have been antagonizing them for over 60 years. We helped create the Islamic revolution by starting a coup to put in a puppet government, and we outed their democratically elected president.

      But personally, I am guessing that you dislike all muslims for religious reasons, so if you are a Christian who believes in Christian zionism, you should come out and say it, because this can define the argument without ambiguity.

    • http://www.military-history.us/ Patrick Shrier

      First, the Samson Option. This is from the same Wikipedia article you cite (emphasis mine) “The Samson Option is the name that some military analysts have given to Israel’s hypothetical deterrence strategy” A hypothetical strategy that is not announced publicly is world’s away from the president of a sovereign nation calling for the physical destruction of another sovereign nation.

      The Israelis achieved independence with American weapons and aid? I think not, read your history. Not braver or wiser than the Arabs, results demonstrate otherwise.
      If a revolt has no chance of success in a modern state explain, Libya, Egypt, and the current fight in Syria. A successful revolt depends on the people and if enough people are willing to sacrifice for freedom they will eventually get it. Apparently the Iranian people are not quite ready to make the sacrifices necessary to gain their own freedom.
      I have never said American strategy in the Middle East should be geared toward making friends. In fact I think it should be geared toward ensuring America’s narrow interests and if having some friends in the region advances those interests then we should have friends. We should not play nice or ally ourselves for any other reason than that said alliance advances American interests. To that end, Iranian possession of nuclear weapons and the ensuing control of the Straits of Hormuz those weapons would guarantee are counter to American interests. That is the only grounds for opposing Iranian development of such weapons. Do you really think that America is responsible for Iranian hatred of the West?

      To be honest, I could care less if the Iranian people are free. It would be nice but I don’t think Iranian freedom is worth a single drop of American blood any more than I thought Iraqi or Afghan freedom was worth it and I spent 13 months in Iraq. I have a problem with Muslims not because I am Christian (Roman Catholic to be precise) but because they are intolerant of anybody that does not follow their religion. Don’t give me that garbage about Islam is the religion of peace. Just ask any member of Syria or Egypt’s Christian communities how tolerant their Muslim neighbors are. How ironic is it that the best guarantors of religious freedom in the Middle East was the totalitarian regimes that the Arab Spring has thrown into disarray?

      Lastly, I have not claimed to hate anybody. At best, I am noncommittal. I simply don’t care enough about the welfare of people who openly claim to want my destruction to expend the energy hating them. I am willing to do what it takes to secure me and mine, that is all. I am perfectly content to let the people in the Middle East kill each other off and am perfectly fine with a hands-off approach unless and until their actions impinge on American interests. At that point it is time to get involved.

      PS. I enjoy the debate too. A good debate always helps me clarify my own thinking, so thank you for that.

    • Andrew

      Yes Islam is a pretty vile religion, but its basically a carbon-copy of Judaism. Judaism is pretty despicable as well. Perhaps you can show me what you see as being different between the two? They’d treat your Roman Catholic ass like shit in Israel, and I think you are naive if you think otherwise. The only reason Judaism isn’t stoning people to death anymore is because it was exposed to European enlightenment thinking for hundreds of years. During the time of Spinoza it was a dark age religion that made Islam look like a Disney cartoon.
      I don’t think you’d be too happy if you knew the true history of Judaism, but it is kept in the dark in mainstream areas, and its kept that way for a reason. I don’t think you’d be able to handle the shock of its true nature.

      Still, I will always find this 50 year old Christian Judeaphilia curious, because Jews are basically scared to death of Christians and always have been. Its an antoganism that started 2000 years ago: when both religions were created almost simultaneously, in the same parts area of the Roman empire. They both were after the same converts and this is why they have been bitter enemies forever, until all of a sudden Christians started getting all teary-eyed over their love for Jews a few decades ago.

      Anyway, I wish I knew what “American interests” are in the middle east. I know access to oil has something to do with it, but like I have said previously, we can and should be getting oil from other places.

      We need to stop drinking their milkshake. We need to drill our own milkshake.

      I think friendship with Iranians would be natural, after all, like I said, not a single Iranian has ever suicide bombed us, unlike the Saudis.

      Suicide-murder is only done by two religious groups: Sunnis and Haredi Jews.

    • Andrew

      And regarding the regime in Iran I think they hate us for two reasons: one is because of what we have done to them. Its called blowback. Anyone would hate us for the violence our government has committed against them.
      And two: they live in an ideological bubble of Islamo-Platonism. naturally they would hate anyone who lives in other ways than this. Pretty creepy, but it can be overcome.

      After all, The Roman Catholic church burned to death millions of people: pagans, Jews, mohammadans, witches, scientists, philosophers, etc.

      And now the Roman Catholic church is just an ancient relic of an an ancient time.

      So, there is also hope for the Middle East. Perhaps these people can overcome the scourge of monotheism and life in a civilized way in the future.

      I left my ancestral religion because it was nothing but a cult of hatred and sickness, so I know other people are capable of doing the same.

    • http://www.military-history.us/ Patrick Shrier

      Your previous comment was deleted for use of profanity. I will tolerate plenty of things in comments but coarse language is not one of them.
      See the TOS under the about tab.

  • Andrew

    North Korea has “da bomb” too. I’m afraid that we are all just going to have to get used to it. Also countries like India and Pakistan (!) have da bomb.
    Plus Prague would have cleaner streets now if the Germans had been allowed to occupy it. Germans wake up every morning and sweep. The Czechs are way too hung over to do this.