Book Review: Flash Points-The Emerging Crisis in Europe by George Friedman

Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe by George Friedman is another insightful book by the founder of STRATFOR. This book examines contemporary Europe and details the strengths and (mostly) fragilities of the present order in Europe.  The book itself is 258 pages of text divided into 3 parts and 16 chapters. There is no bibliography or index which I found to be disappointing.

The first part of the book deals with describing Europe, Europe’s rise to world domination and the way in which Europe has fragmented since the Enlightenment. Friedman essentially blames Enlightenment thought and the triple themes of secularism, mercantilism, and science as the ultimate cause of the European self-destruction of the 20th century. I don’t know that I am necessarily willing to go that far because the argument sounds suspiciously like the argument that feminism is responsible for the destruction of the modern family argument to me. He does lay out a pretty good case for his thesis even though I do not necessarily agree with it. I agree with him to the extent that the Enlightenment and Enlightenment thought certainly made the ideological and technological horrors of the World Wars possible.

Part two discusses the effects of the two World Wars on Europe. He accepts he modern view that the World War I and World War II were actually just the first and second acts of the same play. That actually makes sense and is a view that first became popular with the publication of Niall Ferguson’s The War of the World in 2007 although the idea has been around in historical circles since at least the early 90’s. Some historians even refer to the World Wars as the European Civil War. Friedman uses the period to illustrate how the wars destroyed European vitality and empire. He makes a good point here and one that many people grasp intuitively but fail to acknowledge, especially among the European elite.

The third and final part of the book is the where the meat and potatoes are. This part is a discussion of the various borderlands and thus flashpoints in Europe. Friedman asserts that the most benign flashpoints fall along the Franco-German border, the English Channel, and in the North Sea and he is undoubtedly correct in this assessment. He assesses the Balkans to be currently stable but subject to uncertainty and explosion and he is correct here as well as a simple examination of the history of the region shows that to be the case going back to the time of the Roman empire.

He also discusses Turkey at some length. I found that refreshing as many people barely acknowledge that Turkey is a European country or at least wish it were not. The fact remains that Turkey is indeed a European country and that even though they are not an EU member and have no hope of becoming one, they are a NATO country. Turkey is in a very volatile and uncertain neighborhood that has seen and is seeing many different conflicts all happening at once. The Turkish borderland deserves some watching as it is not inconceivable that Turkey will become drawn into any of the myriad conflicts on its periphery with consequences for the rest of Europe.

Lastly, the borderland/flashpoint Friedman holds to be the most dangerous is that in Eastern Europe, specifically those areas of Eastern Europe that were under Soviet domination prior to the collapse of communism in the early 90’s. This is the area to watch as Russia becomes more assertive as they have in the past year in Crimea and Ukraine. Not only do the Baltic States fell rightly threatened, but Poland and other eastern European nations feel the same way and NATO is at best a weak reed absent US interest.

Friedman’s assessment of European capabilities and intentions, especially with regard to the major powers of Germany, France, and Britain is spot on. He makes no predictions of the likelihood of war but he does point that after the economic crisis of 2008 and the Russian war against Georgia of that same year the 65 period of history on pause in Europe has come to an end and none of the European powers are really ready for history to start up again. The fact that post-World War II Europe has enjoyed its longest period of peace is no guarantee that said peace will last. History has indeed restarted in Europe and the west European powers ignore that at their peril.

This is yet another excellent book from George Friedman and should be read by anyone interested in the tensions in the world and the historical underpinnings for current events. A great book and I highly recommend it.