Category Archives: Military Theory

Periodic World Craziness Update # 32

The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.  

Iraqi Military Makes Gains North of Baghdad in Conflict With ISIS:  It will be interesting to see how the response to the ISIS offensive plays out both in Iraq and in the wider world.  The INA is a broken reed and any gains they make will be fleeting.  I fully expect a stalemate to ensue shortly wherein Iraq is effectively partitioned.  We are saying the beginning of bloody fighting.  Think of it as Sunni Triangle II.

Ukraine Says Russia Has 38,000 Troops on Border Amid ‘Invasion’:  The biggest news out of this story is not that Russia is massing limited numbers of troops on the Ukraine border or even that Russian SF agitators are probably already in Eastern Ukraine but that Gazprom has cut off gas supplies to Ukraine.  Supposedly through traffic to the EU is continuing but who thinks they won’t shut that off too if the EU gets too froggy about their support for Ukraine?

Putin Backs Cease-Fire in Ukraine Amid Russia Army Drills:  I am simply amazed at the level of duplicity displayed by Russia regarding events in Ukraine.  I am even more amazed that the Western powers are not calling them on it.  It is obvious that the rebels are getting arms from the Russians yet the European powers refuse to acknowledge that and when Ukrainian or US authorities say it aloud the silence from our supposed allies is deafening.

Ebola ‘out of control’ in West Africa: MSF: A new strain of the Ebola virus is a potential nightmare. It is 90% lethal and apparently the strain currently spreading through West Africa is more easily transmitted than previous strains although news reports are not explicitly saying that. If this virus ever becomes airborne transmissible, all bets are off.

Kerry issues warning after Syria bombs Iraq:  In the most ironic thing of all, I have to wonder if some Western leaders are privately beginning to think that Assad is not that bad after all?   At least Assad made sure that his corner of the middle east was fairly stable, and it is obvious that a large chunk of the Syrian people support him as well.

ISIS Tries to Grab Its Own Air Force:  The significance of Balad falling would not be in ISIS control of aircraft, but in Iraqi loss of same.  I find it difficult to believe that ISIS counts a large number of pilots in its ranks, much less pilots qualified to operate combat aircraft and the aircrew to keep them operational.  The fall of Balad and Taji, were it to occur, would be a further symptom of how rotten the Iraqi army is.  Of course, I called that ten years ago when I was helping to establish the first Iraqi training program for the INA we were rebuilding.

BREAKING: ISIS Shows Off MASSIVE SCUD Missile in Military Parade:  I am not certain that the Iraqis need to worry overmuch about ISIS getting their hands on artillery and SCUDs.  Those are very technical weapons and if they are not served right are more dangerous o the operator than the enemy.

Poroshenko ends Ukraine ceasefire, says government will attack rebels:  If Russia withdraws support for the rebels the separatists could be crushed within weeks.  If however, Russia is just playing for time then this could last months yet.  It is also significant that apparently someone has admitted that Russian control of European energy supplies is a major factor in the tepidness of the European response to blatant Russian aggression all along.  Of course, the time for strong sanctions and pressure on Russia is now when energy needs are not as acute as they will be this coming winter.

Ukrainian forces tighten grip on Slavyansk as retreating rebels regroup:  Now it is up to the Ukrainian Army to “keep up the skeer” and not pause in applying pressure to rebels who are now clearly on the defensive and have lost the initiative.

Hamas rockets reach Jerusalem and Tel Aviv:  I am curious to see if Israel will finally be smart, ignore international public opinion, and teach the Palestinian Arabs a brutal, bloody lesson they won’t forget for a generation.  They probably won’t though.  The Israelis will piss around, kill some Arabs, lose a few troops, and go back to the status quo.  Western leaders, Israel included, refuse to face the bitter truth that the only thing Arabs understand is force, everything else is weakness.

ISIS militants take sledgehammers to Mosul tomb of Prophet Jonah:  Yet more peaceful destruction from the adherents of the Religion of Peace.  Unless and until the Iraqi government gets their collective heads out of their 3rd point of contact ISIS and it’s adherents will continue to commit these outrages.

IDF strikes 80 Gaza targets in under thirty minutes:  One would think that at some point the Israelis are just going to evict all the Arabs from Gaza and bulldoze the slums that have been built there.

Germany Cites Deep Rift With U.S. Amid Second Spy Case:  If the allegations are true this is one of the dumbest possible things the US could do.  Germany has been a staunch US ally since the founding of the FRG in 1949.  What possible intelligence could be worth losing an ally?

Israeli troops wounded in first ground incursion in Gaza:  I wonder how long it will take Hamas to organize a mass firing on an Israeli city in hopes of overwhelming the Iron Dome system?  If something like that does happen then a ground invasion is a virtual certainty.

Russia warns Ukraine after shell crosses border:  The fighting in Ukraine continues with government forces slowly making inroads and regaining control of territory.  The likelihood of cross-border incidents only increases as gov. troops regain control of territory and I would not be surprised if at some point Russia does not use such an incident as a causus belli to get involved and support their proxies.

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The Battle of Messines Ridge – 1917

From the opening months of the World War I, Flanders was the decisive sector for the British Army.  It was in an around the medieval Belgian town of Ypres that the original BEF had decimated themselves fending off German attacks from October to December, 1914.  Ypres and the salient surrounding it was where the British would see the hardest and most prolonged fighting of all the places where the British would fight in World War I.

The Battle of Messines Ridge fought from 7-14 June, 1914 was not really a separate battle at all but rather the opening phase of what would come to be known variously as the Third Battle of  Ypres or Passchendaele.

Messines 1

 

The Battlefield: Then and Now
The Battlefield: Then and Now

The Messines Ridge is on the southern shoulder of what was then the Ypres salient.  It is commanding terrain the possession of which allowed the German army to see almost all the way into the center of the city of Ypres itself and observe British movements inside the salient allowing the Germans to target British concentrations of troops very accurately.

The Ridge itself is not very high, about 90 feet, but that was more than high enough for military purposes given the flat nature of the terrain in Flanders near the coast.  I never fully appreciated the advantage to be gained from possession of a 90 foot ridge-line until my first visit to the battlefield in 2004 while on R&R from my tour in Iraq.  In Flanders a 90 foot difference in elevation makes all the difference in the world.

Possession of the Messines Ridge would allow the British to deny observation of a significant portion of their rear area to the German army and would also serve as an excellent stepping off point for follow on offensive operations both to expand the salient and effect the ever elusive breakout that all generals from any side fervently wished for.

The immediate commander and primary planner for the British forces in the lead-up to Messines Ridge was Gen. Herbert Plumer who had the unfortunate reputation with Haig of being a plodder.  Plumer reputation among the troops however was different.  He was on of the few British generals who the troops adored or even loved because of his well-known concern for their welfare and desire to avoid excessive casualties.

Aerial Photo of the Messines Ridge around St. Eloi taken on 23 Apr 1917 during planning for the battle
Aerial Photo of the Messines Ridge around St. Eloi taken on 23 Apr 1917 during planning for the battle

The plan Plumer came up with to take the ridge entailed the explosion of 25 mines that the Royal Army had laboriously emplaced under the ridge in the months leading up to the commencement of the offensive.  The mines ranged in size from the 96,500 lb St. Eloi mine to the 30,000 lb Petit Bois mines.  These were set to essentially demolish and demoralize the German front line trenches whereupon the British troops were expected to easily occupy them before the stunned Germans could react and throw them out.

A creeping barrage by 2/3 of the 2,200 artillery pieces available was to “shoot the attacking infantry in” once the mines exploded.  The rest of the artillery was reserved for use in the counter battery role to suppress German artillery to a depth of 9,000 yards along the attack front.

A preliminary bombardment lasting almost two weeks was also planned for the preparing the battlefield and hindering the Germans from reinforcing the sector to be attacked.  (NOTE:  preliminary bombardments of this style were not meant so much to destroy defensive works so much as to demoralize the enemy, injure defenders, and keep the enemies head down allowing attacking infantry to assault when the time came)

The Messines battle was the opening act of what was ultimately planned to be a British rupture of the German defenses in Flanders.  The overall plan failed.

At approximately  3:10 a.m. on the morning of June 7th, 1917 19 of the 25 emplaced mines exploded.  The 4 Birdcage mines were not detonated because the Germans had already evacuated the area by Zero-Hour and two failed to explode. The mines were wildly successful and the British troops did indeed essentially waltz into the German positions and establish occupancy.

The Germans attempted to counterattack on day one but they were unable to keep the British from occupying and holding the entirety of the first three lines of German trenches except for a portion of their third line which they retook from II ANZAC Corps.

On the morning of 8 June the II ANZAC Corps retook the section of the German third line they had been ejected from.  The rest of the British assault divisions set about consolidating the defenses in the newly won positions while the British artillery provided disrupting fire on German counterattacks while a portion of the artillery was displaced forward.

German artillery unleashed a massive bombardment on the captured trenches during which it is estimated that the British suffered up to 90% of their casualties during the battle.

Once large-scale German counterattacks stopped on 14 June the Messines sector settled down until the Passchendaele battle restarted active fighting in the beginning of July.

The Battle for Messines Ridge was one of the few arguably successful offensives of World War I prior to the offensives of the Last Hundred Days in 1918.

Messines 4

Book Review Featured Image

Book Review: The Bombers and the Bombed: Allied Air War Over Europe 1940-1945 by Richard Overy

[FULL DISCLOSURE: I received my copy of this book free from the author. I was not paid for this review and the opinion expressed is purely my own]

The Bombers and the Bombed: Allied Air War Over Europe 1940-1945 is one of those books that is going to end up a standard work for a long time to come.  It is the single most comprehensive history of the Allied bombing of Germany and occupied Europe during WWII that I have seen since the strategic bombing survey published by the US government in the immediate post-war years.

I have a review copy of the book so the page counts may be a little different in the published version.  The book itself is 561 pages with 78 pages of notes, a 26 pages bibliography, and an 18 page index.  It is divided into six chapters.  The first three chapters are a chronological account of the air war over Germany and the last three are thematic dealing with the logic of bombing and the campaigns in Italy and the occupied countries.

Every book about the war talks about the bombing campaign and most take for granted that it was effective at least partially in reducing Germany’s war-making ability.  This book examines the war in detail and tries to establish the effectiveness, if any, of the Allied bombing offensive.  The answer is mixed at best.

It has always struck me as odd that despite the expenditure of hundreds of tons of bombs and the devastation of the center and surrounding regions of most industrial towns in Germany, german war production continued to increase throughout the war.  Indeed, the most productive war of the month in terms of number of tanks and aircraft constructed was march of 1945.  Given that, how could it be said that the bombing campaign was successful as many historians and the leaders of the campaign claimed?

The point of bombing was not to kill civilians, but to reduce the war making capacity of Germany.  What Dr. Overy makes clear is that while industrial capacity was negatively affected in the wake of many raids, what was lost was regained and then some so rapidly that production halts were temporary at best.  he attributes this to two causes; one, bombing accuracy was abysmal, and two, the Germans were very good at repairing damage and getting production lines running again.

It was considered a good raid by the british if there bombs fell within 5 miles of the target and three Americans thought within 3 miles was good.  Bombing accuracy was so bad because the bombers flew very high to avoid AA fire and in the case of the English, they flew at night.  The lower the bombers flew, the more accurate they were but they also suffered horrendous losses at low altitude due to AA fire and German fighters.

Added to bombing inaccuracy, was the depth and responsiveness of the German Civil and Air Defense Systems.  The Germans had a multitude of agencies tasked with dealing with raiding damage and the German people themselves pitched in to make things good.  The striking thing is that the Germans could have been even more effective if they had streamlined their civil defense organizations and avoided having a plethora of agencies trying to do the same thing.

The story of the bombing of italy shows that where the germans were very good, the Italians were very bad and italian civilians suffered as a result.  Of special interest is the discussion of the bombing of occupied countries and the response of the occupied people to the destruction and loss of life inherent in being bombed to get their freedom.

This is an outstanding book and I highly recommend it to anyone who thinks they are knowledgeable about the Allied Bombing campaign of WWII.  The book dispels some myths and puts the effectiveness and ineffectiveness of strategic bombing in context to who the war was won and the Nazis defeated.

Periodic World Craziness Update # 31

The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.

 Ukraine battles militants, Russia demands cash for gas:  The hijinks continue.  I am very curious to see what happens in the Elections on 25 May.  If the current regime is selected they gain instant credibility and legitimacy and I would expect them to double down on their efforts to crush the eastern separatists.

Hard for NATO to defend Baltic states from Russia – Spiegel:  This should not be news for anyone who has paid attention to the anemic state of the militaries of mos NATO countries.  The question is will Russia even go after the Baltic states?  I think the answer to that right now is no.

China Suspends Cybersecurity Cooperation With U.S. After Charges:  I sometimes wonder when China is going to come out in the open and make it clear that they are an enemy of the United States and the rest of the world.  So far they have been able to have it both ways and benefit from selling products to the West while acting contrary to Western interests.  Eventually that will cease when they can no longer achieve their geo-strategic goals through threats and bluster.

Egypt’s Brotherhood entrenched for war of attrition:  It looks as though the Egyptians should prepare themselves for years of low-level conflict with the Muslim Brotherhood.  A template is probably the decades long Turkish war with the PKK.

Poroshenko Declares Victory in Ukraine Presidential Election:  The question becomes will Poroschenko be able to get eastern Ukraine under control?  I think not.  I do however, think that his election will solidify the rest of Ukraine in determination to not allow the east to secede.  Putin is backing off for now, but I fully expect him to renew support for the rebels if it is convenient for him to do so.  Don’t think for a minute that Putin will not snap up more territory if he thinks he can do so cheaply.

China Sinking Fishing Vessel Raises Tensions With Vietnam:  Lest we forget that Ukraine is not the only flashpoint.  China continues its efforts to wrest control of offshore resources away from other asian countries.  Asia has the potential to be an even wider regional war than anything between Russia and the Ukraine.

Ukrainian separatists report heavy losses in Donetsk airport battle:  It looks like the Ukraine is not going to stand down and the election gives new legitimacy to Ukrainian efforts to stamp out the rebels.  The ball is definitely in the court of Putin now.  Will he step up support for the rebels?

U.S. to keep 9,800 troops in Afghanistan:  I will believe it when I see it.  I just cannot see Karzai signing the new SOFA after the stink and resistance to doing so he has made so far.  Karzai seem determined to cut his own throat, or maybe he does not realize that 20 minutes after the US turns out the lights he becomes target # 1 for the Taliban.

Lithuania accuses Russia of harassing ships in Baltic Sea:  If these incidents are true then Russia has decided to move the area of their hijinks since it is apparent that the Ukraine is willing to fight to to avoid losing any more territory and Putin is apparently unwilling to commit conventional forces to separate Eastern Ukraine from the rest of the country.

Syria Elections a Forum to Celebrate Assad:  In other news, Assad gets reelected in a landslide, (who expected that?) and vows to continue his whooping of the rebels.  Absent foreign intervention there is now no question that assad will win.  Foreign intervention is likely not forthcoming mainly because of the significant jihadi presence among the rebels.  If there is one thing you can say for Assad it is that he generally keeps hi pet Jihadis under pretty tight control.

 Ukraine military launches offensive against rebels:  Given the rhetoric and legitimacy of Ukraines newly elected president I suspect the Ukrainians are fixing to get serious about retaking the east from the rebels.  I also fully expect that the pleas for western military assistance in the form of arms and armaments will increase as well.  What I cannot guess at is how those entreaties will be met.  The US should have plenty of excess equipment sitting around given how the admin is intent on gutting the US military.  We could give the Ukrainians MRAPs instead of giving them to local police in the US.

Militants Overrun Iraq’s Second-Largest City As Government Forces Flee:  Just so that we are not all distracted by events in Ukraine, let us not forget that the civil war in Iraq continues and the government forces are not doing so well.  If the Iraqi government were smart they would supply weapons to the Kurds and give them a free had to deal with the insurgents.  Since the government is not smart and focuses on sectarian policies they will not do so.

80% of Syria rebels are Islamist, senior IDF officer says:  These are the folks that the president is talking about arming.  Is ousting Assad worth providing arms and training to people ideologically affiliated with those who carried out the 9/11 attacks?

Insurgents in northern Iraq seize key cities, advance toward Baghdad:  The meltdown in Iraq continues.  It sure is nice to see that the corrupt government of Maliki is getting what many have said it would over the years.  His sectarian policies are finally bearing fruit and reigniting the Iraqi Civil War.  Now watch as the ISIS guys stay far away from the Kurds.  Mainly because the Kurds don’t mess around, they will kill an insurgent and then go find the insurgents family and kill them too.  That is how deal with Arab rebels, threaten to destroy their entire families, and then do it.

Ukraine minister: 3 tanks crossed border from Russia:  If true, this is yet another act of war on the part of Russia.

Periodic World Craziness Update # 30

The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.

 Ukraine Falters in Drive to Curb Unrest in East:  Perhaps the biggest mistake the Kiev government could make right now is to make threats they are unwilling or incapable of following through on.   Nothing could damage their credibility and legitimacy more than doing so.  It would seem they have done just that in regards to the protester seizure of government buildings in the eastern part of the country.

Fragile Europe Weakens U.S. Push for Russia Sanctions:  Who would have thought the current US admin could demonstrate more resolve than the EU right now?  Of course, Obama must follow through or he shows himself to the the paper tiger he has demonstrated before.  The disconnect among the western powers over Ukraine and the response to Russian aggression just makes the situation more fraught with peril than a strong united stand would be.

Ukraine pushes tanks and troops into separatist east:  So let me get this straight.  The Ukraine is acting to regain control of Ukrainian territory from Russian inspired insurgents and Medvedev, the Russian PM, deigns to blame Ukraine for starting a potential civil war by acting to protect their sovereignty?  If Russia had not instigated things in the Crimea last month this would not be happening.  Russia is to blame here and if a civil war or wider war starts there is no question where the war guilt lies.

Apparent Ukrainian troop defections escalate tensions in eastern Ukraine:  The Ukrainian slide into civil war that only Russia can stabilize continues.  Putin’s plan is either working great or he is using events to his advantage much better than is the West.

Japanese ship seized in wartime claims row:  Meanwhile, tensions between China and Japan continue to ratchet up.  The world is just an interesting place right now.  I would be curious to know exactly how big a percentage of China’s carrying trade moves in Japanese hulls and how much a suspension of such commerce would hurt China?  One thing is certain. China is more economically vulnerable than any other potential hostile power right now.

Putin Warns of Consequences as Ukraine Steps Up Offensive:  The richest part of this story is Putin’s hypocritical quote: “If it’s true that the current regime in Kiev sent the army against citizens inside its country, then it is a very serious crime against its own nation,…”  Pot meet kettle who has been waging a war against it’s own citizens for damn near twenty years in Chechnya.  So, If Ukrainians do what Putin does it is a crime huh?  Expect the Russo-Ukrainian War to start before this update gets posted.

Ukraine official says he fears a Russian invasionExclusive: Putin Halts All Talks With White House:  The slide toward war continues.  The big question to me is if the West will stay out of it because they falsely don;t see there strategic interests threatened by Russian aggression and expansion.  Interesting Times indeed.

Russian jets cross into Ukraine airspace:  Yet one more step towards armed Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.  What impotent steps will the West take now?

Pro-Russia rebels hold German-led observers hostage:  It will be interesting to see the steps Germany and the EU take in response to the kidnapping of these OSCE observers.  I am guessing it will be demands for their release under threat of even more sanctions.

Ukraine crisis: Mayor of second city Gennady Kernes fights for his life after assassination attempt blamed on Kremlin:  The assassination of public officials is a very worrying sign as that is the next logical step in the slide towards civil war and a very good indicator of how much the Kiev government is losing their grasp on events.

 Ukraine crisis: Kremlin insists it cannot control pro-Russian separatists and calls for dialogue with West:  If you believe Putin has not control or influence I have some ocean-front property for sale cheap.

Ukraine crisis: ‘This is not some kind of a short-lived uprising. It is a war’:  It is not a war yet but if the Kiev government cannot regain control quickly or if they suffer a major setback it could rabidly devolve into a civil war.

Iran and Assad have won in Syria, say top Tehran foreign policy figures:  While I hate to agree with anything coming out of Tehran, they are right.  It is clear that absent majore western intervention that is patently not forthcoming it is now only a matter of months before Assad defeats the rebels.  Then again, I don;t think the West ever had a dog in that fight to begin with.  If anything, the West should have refused all support as soon as it became clear that Islamists were among the rebels.

Pro-Russian Separatists Declare Victory in East Ukraine Vote:  Of course, it was to be expected that the separatists would claim overwhelming victory on the election they are holding at the barrel of a gun now isn’t it.