The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.

North Korea demands US withdrawal from peninsula before resuming talks: Now we know that the North is just posturing and has no stomach to start a hot war with the South.  The bad part from their perspective is that if they are dumb enough to try and ;pull off even a limited attack the days when they could expect a proportional or even no response from the South are probably over as the South would probably retaliate all out of proportion to the scale of any provocation from the DPRK.  

Boston Marathon bombings: No doubt more information about this will come out as the investigation proceeds.  I have linked the Wikipedia article as it gets updated very quickly with developments and the editors do a pretty good job of keeping it objective.  One thing seems pretty clear now, the bombings were motivated by Islamism of some sort although exact details are unknown.  A disturbing development is the idea proposed by some Republicans that the surviving attacker be denied his rights as a US citizen and be treated as an “enemy combatant.”  I don’t expect that to go anywhere in this case but the idea has been proposed and that it is seriously proposed by members of the US government is scary in the extreme.

Some lawmakers told last week about Syria, sarin, U.S.: Intelligence points to small-scale use of sarin in Syria:  There have been several reports of Syrian use of Chemical Weapons over the last few weeks first from the Israelis and now coming out of Congress.  I simply cannot believe there is any corroboration or confirmation of their use or this story would be all over the news since the Boston Bombings are starting to fade.  I tend to discount these reports until we get confirmation of their veracity.  The next question is what the response will be?  It has been longstanding US policy that they will not tolerate the use of such weapons but I would guess that we will do noting unless and until US personnel are impacted.  The US stood by as Saddam gassed the Kurds in the 80′s why would it be any different now?

Too late for Syria-Radicals now rule the rebellion:  Ralph Peters has a pretty interesting take on Syria and a pretty good argument for why the West and particularly the US should stay out of it.

Israel Targeted Iranian Missiles in Syria Attack:  I think we are supposed to be shocked and dismayed that Israel is being pre-emptive about the Syrian Civil War and countering threats before they kill Israeli civilians.  I don’t know why we should be though.  What I am surprised about is the level of restraint Israel has thus far shown.  Then again, I am not one of those that automatically assume anything Israel does is evil and anything their enemies do is virtuous either.

UN accuses Syrian rebels of carrying out sarin gas attacks which had been blamed on Assad’s troops:  Well, what is it?  Is it the Syria government or the Rebels using Chemical Weapons?  If someone were willing to bet, I would bet that IF such weapons are being used, both sides are using them.  If that is the case who will the Western Powers attack and will rebel use affect the aid they are receiving from the West?  I would guess the Western powers will wink at rebel use because they have convinced themselves that the rebels are as pure as the driven snow and only do what they do out of necessity.

Lijian stealth drone prepares for test flight:  Is it just me or does it increasingly look like there is a Cold War shaping up between China and the US and our Allies?  This article reminds me of the Soviet roll-outs of new weapon systems as it seems designed to intimidate.  The difference this time around is I don’t think the US is prepared economically or politically to confront China for global dominance.  The US wasted whatever peace dividend we got from the demise of the Soviets in the fruitless wars of the past decade.

Hezbollah says Syria to supply ‘game-changing arms’:  Just to make things even more interesting it is increasingly starting to look as though the Middle East is getting ready for a do-over of the Arab-Israeli wars of the 50′s & 60′s with a side order of civil war thrown in.  We live in interesting times indeed.

The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.

Obama Says Iran A Year Away From Nuclear Weapon: The most telling quote and also begging a question from this piece is: “Iran is about a year away from developing a nuclear weapon and the United States remains committed to doing everything in its power to prevent that from happening…”  What exactly can the US do?  In the face of the budget cuts this year that are forcing a virtual shutdown in training and the resultant effects on military readiness are not US options even more reduced than before.  It would seem that the President is making empty veiled threats and if I can see that you can bet Iranian intel analysts see it the same way.  A good example of how domestic politics affects international relations.  We are entering an interesting period in Iranian-Western relations.  More than ever we need a definite answer to what happens if Iran actually gets the bomb? If they get it they will less restrained than others from using it.

U.S. General Puts Troops on Security Alert After Karzai Remarks:  What the US leadership needs to do is cut bait.  Given his numerous recent remarks it is obvious that Karzai no longer feels he needs American or NATO assistance and is positioning himself to come out on top in the inevitable Civil War that will break out mere weeks after the last foreign soldier leaves. I wonder how long it would take to destroy everything in place and get our troops out?  I would guess that NATO could be completely gone from Afghanistan in about 3 weeks from the go order if that order included a scorched earth policy in which we leave absolutely nothing of military value behind in operable condition.

Cyprus works on last-minute deal to soften bank levy:  This one is strange and I wonder if a demand such as this one will presage the final, overdue in my opinion, breakup of the Euro club.  I bet the folks in the PIIGS group of countries are really starting to wonder if there bank deposits are safe after the announcement that the EU is essentially forcing the Cypriot government to enact a one-off confiscatory tax on personal deposits.  Riots are probably not far behind as well as bank runs.  The best question is what idiot in Brussels came up with the idea of this idiotic tax.  It is almost as though the proposal is designed to provoke violent protests. Update-Cyprus scrambles to avert meltdown, EU threatens cutoff:  This is another slow motion disaster happening before our eyes.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  Could Cyprus end up being the first country to jump from the Euro?  It certainly appears that could be the case.

North Korea Vows Military Action Against More U.S. B-52 Flights:  I can’t say that North Korea is not dumb enough to actually try and shoot down an American aircraft.  They did sink a South Korean naval vessel a few years ago and there was also there artillery bombardment of the South Korean island and village.  The only thing you can count on when it comes to North Korea is that they are irrational enough to do just about anything and if they say they will do something be vigilant regardless of how crazy or self-defating their stated intentions sound.

North Korea puts rocket units on alert to ‘attack US’:  The DPRK continues to ratchet up the rhetoric against both the South and the US.  I am increasingly convinced that this is leading up to something although I am not sure what.  Perhaps they plan a strike on Seoul, which is inside of heavy artillery range from the DMZ.  Whatever they do it will be a mistake as the only thing they can possibly accomplish is starting a regional war with the potential to go global.  I am seeing shades of Europe in the 30′s in Asia right now.  I am almost convinced that China is egging the North on and trying to play both sides of the plate.

This is all from the first week of April: North Korea Is Running Out of Threats, North Korea to cut all channels with South as “war may break out any time”, North Korea plan to attack US mainland revealed in photographs,  North Korea says enters “state of war” against South, China mobilizing troops, jets near Korea, U.S. General Says North Korea Situation Is ‘Volatile’ and ‘Dangerous’:  I am not sure anymore what, if anything, the DPRK is leading up to.  It certainly has all the appearances of wagging the dog and little to do with an actual war scare.  I could be wrong though and the DPRK’s leadership really is dumb enough to start a war.  Maybe they have assurances of Chinese support if shooting starts, we just don’t know.  The DPRK is so opaque it is difficult to understand the dynamics of what is really going on here.  As much as I hate to say it, I think we don’t have any choice but to wait and see at this point.  If the rhetoric is continuing in a month then I would say it is posturing, if it has stopped then it is certainly posturing.  If however, we find ourselves in a shooting war within the month then we will know something was up.  The North cannot continue the rhetoric at this level indefinitely without looking like fools so they will either have to settle down or start shooting if they don’t want to just be ignored completely.

North Korea Army: ‘War Could Break Out Today’:  Given the level of rhetoric I am starting to think that by the time this post publishes on the 15th of April either the two Korea’s will be at war or the North generated crisis will have passed.  I don’t see that the DPRK has any choice but to blink but have no confidence that they are able or willing to act in their own self-interest.  On an unrelated note, if a war does start the US might finally get the USS Pueblo back and end that particular shame.

Five die in Christian-Muslim clashes in Egypt, Coptic Christians under siege as mob attacks Cairo cathedral:  It is hard to see the current unrest between Muslims and Christians in Egypt as anything but a Brotherhood inspired terror campaign.  I don’t have any evidence to prove this beyond the speculation that if the government was really interested in preventing violence they could easily do so were they willing to.  That leaves me with the conclusion that at a a minimum this violence has tacit government approval and as we all know, despite his protestations to the contrary  Morsi is just an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood.

SKorea: NKorea may be preparing to test missile:  I will wait and see if this really happens before commenting.  

Lawmaker drops bombshell: North Korea may have nuclear missiles:  If the North Koreans do have nuclear capable missiles this is a game-changer.  The question then becomes is preemption against such an obviously unstable regime a policy we should be pursuing in consultation with regional allies such as Japan and most importantly, South Korea?  I don;t know the answer to this one because I don;t know how good the supposed intelligence is and what the likelihood of success an strike to disable the North’s nuclear missiles might be.

The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.

Pressure builds in Iran nuclear stand-off:  It is quite simple really.  Nobody wants to do anything with regards to the Iranian quest for nuclear weapons that can really stop them because that would entail Iraq style regime change and there is not a single country willing to go that far that has the capability.  (That would be the US)  The diplomatic dancing will continue until Iran tests a weapon at which point it will be too late.  I also think that at that point Israel will have no choice but to unilaterally attack Iran as they are the country in Iran’s cross-hairs as anyone who pays even the slightest attention to Iranian utterances should well know.

North Korea threatens South with “final destruction”:  The question:  Is this more bluster from the DPRK or are they actually stupid enough to start a war?  I tend to think it is bluster but the wild card remains that you cannot be sure what the North will do.  This is especially true given the new “Dear, Great, Precious  Leader they have who no doubt needs to solidify his hold on power.  I think we can count on one thing, the North will continue to make brazen statements ad occasionally back it up with actions such as the occasional artillery exchanges or naval provocations they have made.  I just think there will be more of them in the next few months and years.

Major Chinese internet hacking base exposed:  The Chinese will continue to deny this til they are blue in the face.  However, where there is smoke there is fire.  It is highly unlikely that China does not have a cyberwarfare unit.  It is however, extremely likely that the secretive regime would deny having one if they did so their protestations of innocence mean nothing.  The Chinese probably do have such a unit and do undertake attacks against Western targets if they can maintain deniability for public consumption.  There are too many reports of attacks being traced to China for there not to be at some substance to Western claims.

Iran announces uranium discovery, plans to build 16 new nuclear power plants:  What I would like to know and have never heard in the press is if the reactor at Bushehr is a feeder reactor or not.  If this announcement represents real discoveries then expect Iran to dismiss any further talks as they continue to pursue nuclear weapons.  Update:  Apparently Iran either has or plans to build a feeder-type reactor.  Why else do they need a heavy water production facility?

Karzai orders US special forces out of Afghan province:  The more I see Karzai biting the hand that feeds him I start to wonder if the US is not just going to Diem him.  It is clear that Karzai is trying t position himself for survival post-OEF but he is doing plenty of harm to Afghan-US relations in the process and he has to know that in the final analysis it is only the US that can guarantee he stays in power.

Hugo Chavez, influential leader with mixed record, dies at 58:  Nice sympathetic headline from CNN about a guy who was a tug and a tinpot.  The biggest question now is what next?  Will democracy be restored in Venezuela?  I hope so but do not have an inkling of the answer.

U.S. says U.N. sanctions ‘will bite’ after North Korea threatens nuclear attack:  The most worrying piece of news in this article is this: “On Tuesday, North Korea said it planned to scrap the armistice that stopped the Korean War in 1953 and warned it could carry out strikes against the United States and South Korea.”  I wonder if Kim Jong Un is planning on warming up the war in the Korean peninsula even further and if so, why?  It cold be that he is under pressure from others in the regime to prove his street cred as it were.  One thing is certain, we can never be certain what or how far the DPRK is willing to go.

 Americans are training Syria rebels in Jordan: Spiegel:  It would not surprise me if this true and if it is the trainers are almost certainly not Active duty US military but civilian contractors (mercenaries).  Most likely any US trainers on the ground in Jordan are single operators and not part of one of the larger groups such as Academi (formerly Blackwater) or Omni Consulting.  This report is a potentially interesting development in the Syrian Civl War.

Pyongyang scraps armistice amid heightened saber rattling:  The last part is right, more saber rattling.  The DPRK leadership has to know that they have zero chance of reuniting the peninsula through war and they probably, even likely, would not get any backing from China were they to initiate one.  Without Chinese support any war would quickly end in defeat and indeed, absent Chinese support the regime would quickly disintegrate because of internal mismanagement and discontent.