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The Fall of Qaddafi and the future of the “Arab Spring”
I wrote about the war/action/conflict/kinetic what have you in Libya when it kicked off in March, April, and again in June. With the rebels now storming Tripoli itself and being on the verge of success under the cover of NATO, the question now becomes what will the successor regime look like. I will guess here and say that it will be a notional democracy wit an oligarchy of strongmen in power. They will also make all the right noises to placate the soft-heads in the west and make them feel good about their policy of R2P. It will probably not be long before the new regime starts hunting down Qaddafis top people and putting on show trials for them. I would guess also that the new regime will bite the hand that fed them by dealing with terrorist groups that have also supported them and denouncing Israel for being repressive and keeping the so-called Palestinian down.
The next question for NATO and the west is how long until R2P is declared justification for intervention in Syria, another regime the west loves to hate?
We will see what happens, it is definitely interesting times.
Legatus
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25 August 2011
Campaigns & Operations, Causes of Conflict, Modern Global Conflict, Non-Historical Asides, Political History, Strategy & Doctrine
Commentary, contemporary war, geopolitics, Libya, Libyan Intervention, Libyan War, NATO, War Origination