One of the weird things about history is it is difficult to know whether you in the middle of world historical events while you are in them because what seems the current trajectory of events may not be the case.  People are people after all and often what seems inevitable just doesn’t happen.

Take a moment to consider the current state of the world, it looks like everything is falling apart as the post-World War II western consensus shatters and we move to a multi-polar world order not seen since the 1920’s. 

Consider the following data points:

  1. Under Donal Trump the US is simultaneously trying to do several things
    1. Bully longtime allies
    2. US initiated Trade Wars
    3. Undermine western democratic norms both at home and abroad
    4. Deemphasize and delegitimize international organizations (NATO, UN, WTO, etc)
    5. Act like a global hegemon
  2. The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine
    1. This is likely to drag some western European states into the conflict at some point
  3. Israel-Gaza War and Israeli actions in Southern Lebanon and the West Bank
  4. The continuing European migrant crisis
  5. China’s intermittent but consistent attempts to establish dominance of the South China Sea
  6. Chinese influence efforts throughout the developing world
  7. Exclusive of the Iran War launched in February, continuing Middle East instability impacting global energy supplies
  8. The growing power of Central and South American drug cartels and their undermining of government in the region

All these things taken together paint a picture of a world that is more unstable than at anytime in the last 8 decades.  That begs the question, is a world war coming or are we already in one and just don’t realize it?  I am increasingly of the opinion that World War III has already begun, and we are just in the early stages.  Everything seems to point to a continued escalation and eventual merger of the several disparate conflicts around the world.  The outlines of the competing power blocs are even beginning to take shape.  How this all plays out is in flux and any predictions here are probably worth about as much as any lottery numbers I were to give you, but this is my take.

Much depends on how things shake out politically in the US.  Despite the demonstrated weakness of the US military in Iran, that is a one off that represents poor planning and execution and not lack of capability.  The real interesting question in the US is if the republican constitutional order can survive 4 years under Donald Trump and a complaint GOP.  The upcoming mid-term elections are crucial because Congress has essentially been a rubber stamp for Trump or willing to cede their constitutional power to the executive.  That may (most likely will) change if Democrats regain control of one or both houses of Congress.  Democratic control of Congress will just stymie Trump, but it will not fix a compliant Supreme Court that is apparently buying into the Unitary Executive theory that paints the executive branch as more powerful than the Legislative and Judicial branches.  If the US retains democracy and returns to its traditional role as a defender of the world order things will be very different than if Trump and the GOP succeed in subverting democratic norms and imposing some sort of backdoor autocracy on the US. 

Beyond the US there are the questions of how the Iran War and related oil shock are resolved, will the Ukraine War expand, how the US Trade war against its traditional trading partners ends or intensifies.

My Guess is that world events over the next 6-18 months will determine whether we truly enter another global conflict or not.  Let us all not forget that global tensions simmered for almost decade after the Wall Street crash of 1929 before the outbreak of World War II in September 1939.  Nothing says the current low boil cannot and will not continue.  Only hindsight is 20/20 and global conflict, while likely in my view, is not inevitable.