Periodic Iran Craziness Update #3

The next round of news and intelligence updates about Iran and their seemingly stupid game of brinksmanship with Israel and the West.

DM: Iran Has Defensive Secrets for Rainy Days Bluster, but maybe all they need to keep the US out of the initial stages of any conflict before the Presidential election is over.

Iran diplomats see suspects in Thai bombings Apparently proof of some level of Iranian complicity in the recent bombing campaign against Israeli diplomats.

Iran’s underground nuclear sites not immune to U.S. bunker-busters, experts say Signal or bluster? I cannot tell but tend to think the latter. I get the sense that the current Admin. actually likes Iran or that the president at least wants to apologize to them for something. Probably for being mean to them since they stormed the US embassy in ’79.

Russia upgrades radar station in Syria to aid Iran\ More evidence that Russia is trying to rekindle the Cold War dichotomy of East vs. West. I would not trust Putin any farther than I could throw him. It is obvious that he only won the recent election through fraud and would love o recreate either the Autocracy of the Romanovs or authoritarianism of the Reds; I am not sure which.

Netanyahu says Israel won’t need U.S. OK to hit Iran. The Question here is if this is just saber rattling by Israel or a serious statement of intent if Israel does not get the support they have to assume will not be forthcoming from the Obama administration. I would guess that this statement is aimed at both Iran and Washington. Obama and the Admin. is probably underestimating Israeli determination as well because they cannot imagine Israel going it alone. I get the sense that Obama and his NSC team think R2P is the only legitimate reason to go to war. They do not really understand the existential concerns Israel has about Iran potentially acquiring Nukes.

It seems that Iran is once again fading out of the news.   I would guess that would not last this year; if nothing else, I expect the Iranians to do something stupid as the US election draws near in an attempt to influence them.   The other possibility is that the analysts are right and Israel strikes Iran in September or October.   Personally, I think Israel is more likely to hit Iran after the US election than before it for a host of political, PR, and strategic reasons.   Only time will tell though.

As I deem it necessary, I will post these updates; I expect them to only come once a month or so for the next few months, then I expect things to get interesting again.