The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.

Red Flag Over the Atlantic:  Everyone who follows China understands that China wants and is trying to increase their influence in the world.  They are doing this by exercising their considerable economic clout in places such as Africa and South America and also by increasing defense spending an acquisitions.  This year they launched their first Aircraft Carrier and have increased defense spending by double digit percentages every year for the past dozen years or so.  That they would be interested in an Atlantic base should surprise nobody.  If they aspire to regain the Great Power status they lost hundreds of years ago they must have a global presence both economically and militarily and establishing themselves in the Azores makes perfect sense from a strategy perspective.

Rockets hit near Tel Aviv as Gaza death toll rises: I challenge anyone to read this article from Reuters and realistically make the claim that it is unbiased reporting.  Of course, why should we expect anything but biased reporting is beyond me, they are the ones who were putting doctored pictures up during the fighting in Lebanon in 2006 and then tried to act innocent when they got caught and threw one of their photographers under the bus.  More recently they did it again in 2010.

Taliban accidentally CCs everybody on its mailing list:  This is hilarious and typical of the kind of stupid mistakes amateurs make that get them caught.  I find it interesting that there are so many “journalists” on the email list of a terrorist organization.  Just saying.  

U.S. sends warships near Israel in case evacuation needed:  Has the US ever evacuated citizens from Israel in prior flare-ups of the Israeli-Arab conflict?  I am only aware of evacuations during the 1967 and 1973 wars, not during any of the minor flare-ups since then.  Hmmm? I smell politics.

Fragile truce deal hailed as a victory on both sides & Gaza Deal Seals Major Role for Egypt’s President: What I don’t understand is why Israel is making concession?  Israel launched their attacks in response to the constant stream of rocket fire into Israel from Gaza launched by Hamas.  So why then is Israel making concessions to get a cease-fire?  They should be gearing up an invasion and actually launching one and literally clearing Gaza out.  I would actually think it would makes sense for Israel to push everybody into the Sinai and then only let people back in after very careful vetting.  The Egyptians are so vocal in their support of Hamas, let them support the Palestinians and deal with the consequences of said support. Patriot Missiles to Turkey -

Panetta Backs Fielding Patriots in Turkey & Russia condemns NATO’s decision to place Patriot missiles along Syrian-Turkish border:  I am not convinced that stopping Syrian incursion into Turkish airspace is all that is at stake here.  I smell a realpolitik rat and think Turkey wants the NATO troops there as a doorstop and for future leverage if the conflict widens.  I can see Turkey trying to invoke the mutual defense clause at some future point if the civil war in Syria continues.  As to Russia being opposed, when in the past 10 years has Russia not seen anything NATO does as anything but a provocation?  There is no surprise they are complaining about this too.  The Russian leadership is still feeling the pain of the collapse of their empire 20+ years ago.

U.N. votes to recognize Palestine as ‘non-member observer state’:  If there is any further proof needed that the UN General Assembly is irrelevant, this is it.  What are the practical effects of this declaration?  I can see at least two: 1. It further legitimizes the PLA and means that Abbas is the only guy to talk to; and 2. It highlights the illegitimacy of Hamas and their authority over Gaza.  The next question is where are the pro-democracy crusaders claiming that this is wrong because Hamas was democratically elected; all you will hear their are crickets.  The ultimate end-effect of this UN vote is nothing, because the UN is essentially incapable of affecting the Israeli-Arab conflict.  This is just one more publicity stunt by the PLA in hops of winning a war they lost on the battlefield in the court of world opinion.

 Egypt’s Mursi leaves palace as police battle protesters:  Maybe I am wrong about the Egyptian people.  That would be wonderful but I still wonder whether the pro-democracy types have the stomach to start a civil war to get a true democracy.  I simply do not see the Muslim Brotherhood backing down now when they are so close to gaining complete control.  Are we seeing the start of Syria 2.0 in Egypt?  Possibly, but I am not sure.

Official: Iran has evidence it captured US drone:  More gamesmanship from Iran.  At this point I don’t know what Iran thinks they are proving.  The only thing that makes sense to me is they try to stick it to the US as much as possible to increase their regional standing. They can never be anything but a regional power unless the West and China go totally down the drain.

Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad’s order: Now this could get scary or it could be a sigh.  I am not certain what the Western reaction would be to Syrian government use of chemical weapons against the rebels.  We could see a full blow R2P war or just more of the usual hot air from Western Leaders and chest beating from the phony bleeding hearts.  My guess would be hot and chest beating because I don;t think the West has the stomach for real bloodletting anymore.

‘Vulture spying for Israel’ caught in Sudan:  Yet there are people that still wonder why it is difficult to take some people seriously.  Those wild and wacky Israelis have some “Get Smart” type stuff going on with their secret agent birds.

The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.

 Greece, Spain ‘in depression’: Nobel winner Stiglitz:  The slow motion death of the Euro continues and the only people that seem to not recognize it are the technocrats in charge of the various EU government.  At some point, probably too late, the signs and symptoms will be so overwhelming that the EU’s leaders will have no choice but to stop trying to apply band-aids and have to do something that will actually work.  That end is probably the dissolution of the Euro.

China’s increasing military spending unnerves neighbors:  Count me among the people who is alarmed by the growth in Chinese military spending.  I suppose it is difficult for America to criticize China given American levels of spending and engagement around the world.  However, Chinese saber rattling in the Western Pacific is also worrying.  China is a big one for airing supposed historic grievances and their use such grievances to generate domestic support for the regime is worrying.  If I were a Chinese neighbor, I would be worried by military spending boosts in excess of 10% per year.  China plays inscrutable so well that everybody else is naturally suspicious and Chinese support for pariah regimes like Iran and North Korea does not bolster the claims of a lack of evil intentions.  That, and they are communists who are inherently untrustworthy to begin with.

Syrian war boils over onto U.S. allies; outside jihadists rush in:  Stories like this highlight why the US and the West need to avoid picking sides in Syria.  Chances are whoever we support hates us anyway and we will garner no goodwill by supporting them.  The US needs to concentrate on helping our steadfast allies like Jordan and Israel and not touch Syria with a ten-foot pole.  At best the US should be prepared to help cleanup the mess of the aftermath of this conflict.

China raises stakes over disputed islands:  I don’t think we have heard the last of this yet.  My guess would be that the dispute will not get to the point of exchanges of fire but I am not sure.  The big ? here is how serious both sides are about pressing their claims to these worthless pieces of rock.  It appears to be a prestige issue now and sometimes prestige, or the risk of losing face, is enough reason to start a shooting war.  As long as the US reaffirms their commitment to assisting Japan if attacked I think war will be avoided.

The Angry Pacific: This is is pretty good analysis of why the US is unprepared for an Asian war despite government claims to the contrary.

After Obama win, U.S. backs new U.N. arms treaty talks:  This treaty should make everybody suspicious, not just conservatives   I am increasingly convinced that the NWO conspiracy types might actually be on to something because I am convinced that the leadership at the UN does in fact want to make national sovereignty obsolete and convert the General Assembly into some type of world parliament with law-making powers.

IDF fires warning shot into Syria after shelling:  Is this, and incidents on the Turkish-Syrian border, the slow-motion beginning of a widening of the 1 1/2 year old Syrian civil war?  I am beginning to be more convinced that the Syrian rebels would like to see the war widen if for no other reason than they think such a widening will be to their advantage.  I am not sure that is a calculation that is strictly true.  The rebels and Syrian government are playing with fire if either seeks to widen the conflict outside the Syrian borders.  Any international response is unpredictable, at best.

Israel launches Gaza offensive, kills Hamas commander:  If anything was calculated to add to the instability in the Middle East, this is it.  I cannot say I blame the Israelis, they have been under increasing rocket attacks out of Gaza for some time now.  Regardless, the timing of their attack could not be worse.  The sad truth is that this was probably inevitable, the events in the region since the Arab Spring have made the “Palestinians” more restless and given them the idea that they can exert pressure on the Israelis and extract some concessions.  That is either an example of wishful thinking on the part of Hamas or a seriously flawed appraisal of Israeli willingness to defend themselves.  The Israeli are the last people in the world who will cave in to threats and Hamas should know this.

The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.

U.S. military suspends joint patrols with Afghans:  All I can say is that it is about damn time one of the higher ups realized that the joint patrol and living policy is a failure.  Absent a robust vetting process, which is obviously lacking, it is unconscionable to have our troops living side by side with Afghans who cannot be trusted as far as we can throw them.

Pakistanis Try to Storm U.S. Outpost; One Is Killed:  I expect that demonstrations supposedly in outrage over the video will continue for a another week or so.  I am more and more convinced that the movie is simply a pretext for the Muslims to go on a rampage and have a compliant western media and political class make excuses for them.  The movie itself is garbage and would have never been known absent the riots and killing of the US Ambassador to Libya.

My contribution to free speech is embedding the video below.  I heartily hope that Muslim regimes block this website because of it.

Germany Cracks Down on Terry Jones and Innocence of Muslims:  Is this proposed banning and censorship an example of appeasement?  I would argue that it is.  If free societies don’t sand up and defend their basic principles then those principles are worth less than the breath expended to express them.

Obama official: Benghazi was a terrorist attack: The truth comes out.  The next questions are how aware was US Intelligence that Al-Qaeda was operating in Libya and whether they are operating there with the knowledge and consent of the Libyan government.

France to close embassies in fear of cartoon backlash:  In other news I may have to take back some of the French jokes I have told over the years.  It appears that at least some Frenchmen are more than willing to take on the mob that calls themselves Muslim and has deliberately published some satirical cartoons about Mohammed prompting the French government to close some of their embassies in fear of retribution.  At some point historical remembrance will kick and the nations of the West will recall that appeasement does not work.  Self censorship in contravention of basic Western principles is nothing more than capitulation in the face of the Muslim mobs anger.  What they need is a little Napoleonic medicine.  Specifically, “a whiff of Grapeshot.”

Syria fires into Jordan, sparking clashes:  Incidents like this and others along the Turkish border along with reports of Iranian support for the Assad regime make me wonder if the Syrian Civil War is not at risk of spreading into the wider world.  I don’t think the idea is too far-fetched as Arab countries seem to be picking sides to support in Syria and any escalation is likely to spread quickly, if it spreads at all in my estimation.  If the Israelis can manage their own border they are probably more than happy to see Arabs shooting at each other.  At least it means that Arab hatred for Israel takes a back-burner to their own internal feuds.  The civil war in Syria bears watching.  Assad shows every intention of holding onto power and his admitted possession of WMD’s makes external intervention a dicier issues than were the interventions in Tunisia and Libya.

Strike on Iran would trigger ‘World War III’: Guards:  The bad part about when Iran starts smack talking is that they just might do it.  I can’t figure out if the Iranians are stupid or crazy but I fear it is the latter.  They seem perfectly willing to suffer annihilation if it mans they can take out some of the perceived enemies with them.

Euro crisis fuels Spanish separatism, Day of rage in Greece as more stringent cuts loom: Are we finally seeing the cracks in the Eurozone crisis widen into chasms?  I stick by my earlier prediction that the Euro is doomed to failure as the series of band-aids the EU has come up with are always too little, too late.  The question to me now is not whether the Euro will survive, it seems foregone to me that it will not, but will the EU survive?  I think that depends on how the individual states manage their internal crisis’ as the Euro flls apart.  I am not prepared to say whether I think the EU will break up although I tend to think a restructuring of the EU is likely but not outright failure.

Nod to Obama by Netanyahu in Warning to Iran on Bomb:  It would seem that Israel has ruled out an “October Surprise” but not that they have ruled out hitting Iran if the Iranians press ahead with nuclear enrichment.  All this latest twist means is that the story has been extended, not that Israel has committed themselves to a diplomatic process.  Israel is the state with the most to lose if Iran gets nukes given the nature of rhetoric emanating from Iran.  I simply cannot fathom that they will allow Iran to develop them unchallenged.  I also don’t think Israel will provide any notice to anybody that a strike is underway until their aircraft are in the air.  This is especially so given the poor state of current Israeli American relations.

EXPERT: Military Conflict ‘Looms’ Between China And Japan:  I somehow find it hard to believe tha a shooting war will erupt over these islands.  Then I think that wars have started over smaller issues.  There is also the aspect that China is very protective of what they consider their rights and privileges and is trying to assert themselves more on the world stage and they may just calculate that they can defeat Japan quickly and state down any response.  I think the the most realistic assessment is that this issue will simmer until China make a move and China will only do something when they are fairly certain of success.  I also think that even Obama would have no choice but to step into the breach were China to be the aggressor and consequences of that are unknowable at this time.  The South China Sea bears watching as these islands are no the only flash points.

Turkey vows to protect its people after Syrian shelling:  This could be the first step into a widening of the conflict or, and I think more likely, this could be the first step in the conflict ceasing to expand.  My prediction in Syria is that the Assad regime will maintain control and the rebels will retreat into an insurgency that will ultimately cost them the support they need to survive.  That is a process that could take years though, years in which the lot of the average Syrian will continue to get worse and worse.

The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.

Afghanistan: a ragged retreat threatens to turn into a slow-motion rout: Afghanistan is increasingly in the news again. I don’t know if that is because the US Presidential race is entering the final stages or that the war does in fact seem to be turning into a slow motion disaster. I suspect a little bit of both with some other factors thrown in. What ,most journalists and commentators fail to acknowledge however is that the war in Afghanistan went south a long time before Obama came into office. It went out the window when the US invaded Iraq and relegated the war to a sideshow through lack of strategic focus. By the time Iraq was concluded the Taliban had had almost 8 years to adjust to American/NATO operational methods and maintain their own operational effectiveness. Herculean efforts would be required at this point to achieve success. The war-weary West can no longer muster the will to bring the war to a successful conclusion.

Marines testing women in combat jobs I am basically only going to link to this story as I don’t even know what to think. Maybe that the forces of idiocy and political correctness must be prevailing? Up is down, left is right, and poor is really rich? Trying to fit women into combat arms has nothing to do with sexual equality, it is about political correctness and once again using the US military as an experiment in social engineering.

Can Europe Survive the Rise of the Rest?: The Rest referred to in the title of this piece is everybody outside the industrialized Western nations of Europe and the wider English speaking world.  It further comes from a theory about why the West has been successful put forth by Niall Ferguson in The West and the Rest, which I have previously reviewed on this site.  The big question is if the Europeans can and will muster the political will to both save the euro and ensure that Europe maintains its place as one of the most prosperous areas of the world.  I find that I am highly doubtful Europe will do either.  The political will to make substantive fundamental changes seems to be lacking in Europe.  Everybody wants somebody else to pay for their own mistakes.  The Europeans will stagger on for a few more years I think and then something will happen although I don’t know what that will either get them to fix their problems or make them completely insoluble.  I can’t tell yet which way I think they are most likely to jump.

Moody’s Changes Euro Zone Rating Outlook to ‘Negative’:  Now this is a good one.  If the rating agencies downgrade the ECB bonds I would imagine this will have a serious cascade effect on the debt instruments of the rest of the Eurozone as it is the ECB that is the only one in a position to rescue the PIIGS countries.  The EU continues to struggle because the political will to fix the serious structural, social, and debt causes of the crisis is lacking.  Band-aid solutions will continue until one country, probably Greece, defaults at which point it will probably be too late to save the Euro.  The collapse of Lehman Bros. in ’08 will be nothing compared to the collapse of the Euro.  Keep on watching and make sure your investments are liquid.

Euro Bailout Fund Faces New Court Challenge in Germany:  This is an interesting wrinkle in the slow motion Eurozone disaster.  The whole thing here hinges on the ECB plans to essentially print money and inflate European debt away.  It will be interesting to see how the German Constitutional Court decides on this.  If they turn it down, it is possible even probable, that the Euro experiment is doomed to failure.  This bears watching.

US transfers Bagram prison control to Afghan officials:  Will the Afghans immediately release a bunch of Taliban or will they stick to their agreement?  Personally, I bet some of the Taliban at Bagram get released as a peace offering to get peace talks going and hopefully get the Taliban to recognize the Karzai regime.  For some reason, I think of snowballs and Hell when that idea comes up.  I simply cannot see the Taliban suddenly reversing themselves and accepting the legitimacy of Karzai’s corrupt regime.  Interesting times indeed.

Have We Ever Sunk So Low?:  Just read the piece, it says it all with no need of additional commentary from me.

US and Israel in open feud over Iran:  I wrote about the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran this past March.  A the time I write that “I expect the Iranians to do something stupid as the US election draws near in an attempt to influence them…”  I have not changed my mind.  It seems that both Israel and the Administration are going out of each others way to rile feathers and strain US-Israeli ties.  Obama and Hillary are being stupid about how they treat our most important Mid-East ally but at the same time Israeli rhetoric and saber rattling is not really helpful.  We will know within the next 60 days if Israel is planning an October surprise or not.

Stories about the Embassy and Consulate attacks in Libya, Egypt, and Yemen.  Officials say Marines were not part of Benghazi force in Libya, Four arrested in deadly attack on U.S. Consulate in Libya, Coptic Christian ex-con behind Muhammad movie, Islamists Storm US Egyptian Embassy, US Apologizes:  There are so many unanswered questions here and so much we don’t know yet that is hard to have an opinion.  One thing is clear, an official organ of the US government apologizing for a US Citizen exercising their rights of free speech is not the thing to do.  That apologizing was the knee-jerk reaction of the Cairo embassy speaks volumes about what the members of the US Diplomatic corps think about the country they represent.  That apparently Muslims still think rioting and murdering people over offensive speech is justified speaks volumes about Islamic culture.  As with the case of the Danish cartoons and Geert Wilders film “Fitna“, [which is embedded below] these riots are widespread and not isolated instances as some people would have us believe.  I will no doubt have more on these events in next month’s update.

Watch Fitna von Geert Wilders

The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.

Heavy clashes hit Syrian capital for second day:  The unrest, hell call it what it really is, the Civil War in Syria seems to be entering a new phase as the rebels gain in strength and/or competence and are actually starting to bring the conflict to the capital Damascus.  The big question mark is not can the rebels win but what will the international community do?  As things now stand they will offer only condemnations of the Assad government because they are stymied by Russian and Chinese support for Assad and his government.  I don’t see that changing any time soon.  Then again, I think that the Syrian civil war is an internal matter best left up to the Syrians to fight out to a solution.  Will it be bloody?  Undoubtedly, but the eventual decision will be more likely to be lasting if the Syrians are left alone.

Syrian Defense Minister Killed as Rebels Strike at the Heart of Power:  The civil war in Syria continues to escalate.  This attack shows that rebel capabilities are better, it does not show that the rebels are smarter or operationally any better.  I also wonder if their attack against Damascus is smart given Assad’s virtual control of information flow in the country.  It seems to me that the rebel assault on Damascus and the ruling family is somewhat stupid.  The worst thing they can do is go after Assad’s clan because that will cause him to double down on trying to stomp the rebellion.  This attack against the government is questionable strategy at best in my opinion.

Police seek bomber identity, Israel blames Iran:  This story makes me wonder if Iran is in fact continuing their proxy war against Israeli interests and citizens.  If they are, Iran is playing a dangerous game.  Israel takes the security of their people seriously and understands and plays the game of Middle East power quite well.  Iran may end up biting off more than they can chew because eventually Israel will retaliate.  Added to this is that US influence with Israel is less under Obama than it used to be so there is not a lot the US can do to restrain Israel right now if they feel the need to retaliate.

Russia, China veto of Syria sanctions spark West’s outrage:  The fake outrage is funny.  Russia and China have aligned themselves with Assad and it is, or should be, a given that they will veto anything coming before the Security council.  What should surprise people even more is that Russia and China are getting along as they are traditional enemies.  The West needs to give up on the UN and if they feel the need to do something about the Syrian Civil War they are are going to have to do it unilaterally.  Of course, that will highlight the hypocrisy of the post-modern left as they have built their foreign policy views on being able to use international institutions to advance their assault on national sovereignty over the past 90+ years.  It is somewhat amusing to see them blocked by institutions they helped create.

Syria says it will use chemical weapons if attacked:  Finally, a Mideast regime openly admits they posses WMD.  The better question is how serious is the threat of their use?  It is probably fairly likely that if the regime feels itself in a position of use them or go under they will get used.  At that point there is no downside to their deployment as Assad and others are probably for the rope anyway if his government falls.  The prospect of personal demise focuses the mind greatly and in today’s climate their are probably no governments willing to accept Assad in exile that will also guarantee his immunity from prosecution by the ICC.  I would expect to see chemicals used at some point although I highly doubt the Syrians have biologicals and if they do they would be extremely stupid to use them.  The possible intervention of Israel if they are used must not be discounted either.  The Syrian Civil War just got a lot more interesting though.

There will be no update in August because I will be on vacation and only have previously written posts set for publication.