Geopolitics

US Secretary of State Announces “Peace in our Time.”

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Obama: Nuclear deal blocks Iran’s path to bomb In an ironic twist showing that the 60+ years since World War II have only fostered institutional amnesia the US and five other powers buckled and agreed to appease Iran in talks about its nuclear program.  Agreeing that sanctions will be eased in return for Iran behaving US Secretary of State John Kerry channeled former British Prime minister Neville Chamberlain by paraphrasing him and tweeting:

 I just wonder if he is going to wave a piece of paper around when he gets home too?

neville-chamberlainHas the world really forgotten that appeasing tyrannical regimes is a recipe for getting heartbroken and sore?  Why would any sane, rational person think for a minute that Iran would give up the nuclear program they have defended so fiercely over the past decade+ in return for access to less than $10 billion dollars of oil revenue?  My guess is that Iran already has enough fissile material for at least one but probably more bombs and thus it suits them to play nice right now in return for concessions.  Remember, Hitler agreed to only take the Sudetenland in September of 1938, because he was not quite ready for war.  But then he turned around and occupied the rest of Czechoslovakia in spring 1939 and kicked off World War II less than a year later.

Should I be worried about being recalled to active duty to go fight in the next world war?

Periodic World Craziness Update # 24

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The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship. Syria: Al-Qaida group changes shape of civil war – It seems increasingly clear that the Syrian Civil War is starting to morph into a more regional conflict.  I would expect that before next summer we will star to see more overt regional alignments and the conflict will start to spread.  Give it another 18 months and we may very well start to see the fighting spread outside of Syria.  I would expect that Lebanon would be the first foreign country to see significant fighting spread onto it’s territory although I can picture a scenario where Iraq is also … More after the Jump…

Periodic World Craziness Update # 22

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The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship.   U.S. weapons reaching Syrian rebels, Syria: nearly half rebel fighters are jihadists or hardline Islamists, says IHS Jane’s report:  As far as foreign policy stupidity goes, arming the Syrian rebels is right up there with deposing the Diem brothers in South Vietnam was in 1963.  I can think of no other act more guaranteed to put American weapons in the hands of America’s enemies unless we were to ship them directly to Al Qaeda.  I am starting to seriously think Alex Jones has the right of the criminal stupidity and treason of the current administration.  It is … More after the Jump…

Periodic World Craziness Update # 21

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The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship. EGYPT: 36 KILLED IN PRISON TRUCK ESCAPE ATTEMPT:  As predicted, Egypt appears to be slipping into a Civil War.  How long until McCain starts saying we need to arm the MB there to protect them against the Military that is trying to keep Egypt secular if not exactly Democratic? In Egyptian village, Christian shops marked ahead of church attack:  What do the Christians have to do with the military – Muslim Brotherhood conflict/argument?  I see these attacks as the MB using the opportunity of the unrest to get rid of a minority they despise anyway.  If the … More after the Jump…

Syria and the Latest Iteration of the Flawed Doctrine of R2P

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I have the sinking feeling that events will outpace my monthly update so I wanted to throw this out there to stay ahead of the curve.  Ironically, it seems I now have the answer to the question I posed in April of 2011, and the answer is 28 months. Exclusive: Syria strike due in days, West tells opposition – sources:  The Admin is talking itself into a corner.  here is also the strong possibility that they want to do this anyway in hopes of polishing up their Foreign Policy credibility.  We all know how swimmingly their last foray into R2P in Libya went.  What we are seeing here is the … More after the Jump…

Periodic World Craziness Update # 20

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The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship. US ‘considering military force in Syria’:  If you read this article the headline is not exactly true, the Pentagon is enaged in contingency planning but is not preparing for imminent action.  There are elements in Congress that would love to see it but as of now Obama is still being partially smart and resisting calls for direct US intervention, which would be a mistake no matter how you look at it. With little argument, House limits U.S. military involvement in Syria, Egypt:  I wil believe it when I see it.  The administration will do whatever they think … More after the Jump…

Book Review: The Great Degeneration by Niall Ferguson

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If there is one book in the realm of history or political science any informed person needs to read this year then Niall Ferguson’s The Great Degeneration: How Institutions Decay and Economies Die is it. In this short book Ferguson goes right to the heart of why the West seems to be in decline and analyzes in short, incisive prose why that is so and perhaps what can be done to reverse it. The book itself is only 147 pages of text divided into an introduction, four topical chapters and a conclusion. There are twenty pages of notes but no bibliography or index, which is unusual for one of Dr. … More after the Jump…

Periodic World Craziness Update # 19

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The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship. Iran to send 4,000 troops to aid President Assad forces in Syria:  If true this begs the question of whether the goal of Iran is to provoke a confrontation with any US troops sent in to train/assist the rebels given that that is the stupid idea the Administration has come up with.  The Civil War in Syria shows every sign of being in the early stages of blowing up into a wider regional conflict and moves like the one’s both Iran and the US are taking do not help keep the war within Syria’s borders. Special Report: … More after the Jump…

Periodic World Craziness Update # 18

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The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and brinkmanship. Syria Begins to Break Apart Under Pressure From War: This article states the obvious. I wonder when, if ever, the NYT is going to regain its former luster as a serious paper. As the analysis in this piece could be done by any 2-year old with an internet connection It is obvious that Syria is falling apart and has been for the past 2 years. The war there would probably be over were it not for foreign meddling in what is arguably an internal conflict. Apparently Western bleeding hearts have more finely developed skills of self-delusion than … More after the Jump…

Support the Syrian Rebels?: How stupid can the West be?

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 Video shows Islamist rebels executing 11 Syrian soldiers:  Yet for some unfathomable reason the Administration is talking about providing support to the rebel groups in Syria.  The video is below (Warning, it is graphic). After watching just contemplate that these are the folks some in the West want us to help.  How they differ from the regime thugs I have no idea. Compare the picture in the linked article with the video.  Notice there is no mention of the cries of Allahu Akbar in the article although they do mention in passing that the group is Islamist.  Now also remember the constant refrain about Islam being a Religion of Peace, which Muslim’s give the lie … More after the Jump…

Periodic World Craziness Update # 17

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The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship. North Korea demands US withdrawal from peninsula before resuming talks: Now we know that the North is just posturing and has no stomach to start a hot war with the South.  The bad part from their perspective is that if they are dumb enough to try and ;pull off even a limited attack the days when they could expect a proportional or even no response from the South are probably over as the South would probably retaliate all out of proportion to the scale of any provocation from the DPRK.   Boston Marathon bombings: No doubt more information about … More after the Jump…

“Middle War”: The new normal going forward

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The Center for Strategic and International Studies has just released Beyond the Last War: Balancing Ground Forces and Future Challenges Risk in USCENTCOM and USPACOM.  The report makes for interesting reading.  What I found the most interesting aside from the scenarios considered was the realization that air power and spec-ops troops cannot win wars by themselves.  Conventional military forces will be required into the foreseeable future.  That view alone is a breath of fresh air given the Pentagon’s lamentable tendency over the past few years to tour both types of forces while the simple ground-pounders are out there doing Yeoman’s work trying to make an unstable world more stable.  High profile raids and airstrikes do not … More after the Jump…

Periodic World Craziness Update # 16

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The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship. Obama Says Iran A Year Away From Nuclear Weapon: The most telling quote and also begging a question from this piece is: “Iran is about a year away from developing a nuclear weapon and the United States remains committed to doing everything in its power to prevent that from happening…”  What exactly can the US do?  In the face of the budget cuts this year that are forcing a virtual shutdown in training and the resultant effects on military readiness are not US options even more reduced than before.  It would seem that the President is making empty veiled threats and if I … More after the Jump…

Margaret Thatcher Passes away

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Margaret Thatcher  the famous Iron Lady of 1980’s Britain and only female Prime Minister in English History has passed away in London from an apparent stroke.  She will be remembered as one of the most effective Prime Ministers in British history.  Not least among her accomplishments was her steadfast opposition to the Soviets in partnership with Ronald Reagan and most notably to me her refusal to bow to Argentina and the way in which she prosecuted the 1982-1983 Falklands War to regain the islands after the Argentine’s invaded and seized them. I hope the British realize what a treasure they have lost and remember her fondly. May she Rest in Peace

Periodic World Craziness Update # 15

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The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and  brinkmanship. Pressure builds in Iran nuclear stand-off:  It is quite simple really.  Nobody wants to do anything with regards to the Iranian quest for nuclear weapons that can really stop them because that would entail Iraq style regime change and there is not a single country willing to go that far that has the capability.  (That would be the US)  The diplomatic dancing will continue until Iran tests a weapon at which point it will be too late.  I also think that at that point Israel will have no choice but to unilaterally attack Iran as they are the country … More after the Jump…

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