I am about half convinced a this point given the level of rhetoric that the first open Russian incursion into eastern Ukraine will happen by the end of the month. I would guess it will be an aerial incursion, probably a helicopter gunship that crosses the border and penetrates 15-20 km’s. At this point I would not b surprised if Russia orchestrated somebody firing on said incursion to give causus belli.
geopolitics
Periodic World Craziness Update # 29
The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and brinkmanship. Crimea referendum: Voters ‘back Russia union’: Yep, That had to be a fair election. It’s not like the Russians don’t have armed troops all over the place there. I stand by my prediction that the US and EU will meekly submit to whatever Russia wants and go no farther than sanctions despite the Western Guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty from the 90’s. Ukraine will probably continue to dominate the news this month as well. NATO general warns of further Russian aggression: So, what led NATO’s commander to just now acknowledge the danger that the Crimea will not be … More after the Jump…
How History Repeats Itself
I apologize in advance for the blatantly political tone of this piece but I am flabbergasted by what I see happening on the eastern periphery of Europe and the anemic reaction to state on state aggression by the rest of the world.
I read this piece by Justin Logan from the Cato Institute this morning and was struck immediately on how similar in tone this piece is to the rhetoric of the pre-WWII America Firsters. Is Estonia Worth a War?
I just ask myself are people so blind or so willing to seek peace at any cost that they will not stand up to tyranny until the cost of stopping it is orders of magnitude greater than if they had stood up for principle at the beginning? The same kinds of arguments against involvement in WWII were made by isolationists in the US and appeasers abroad as Hitler’s Germany slowly re-armed and swallowed its neighbors in the years prior to WWII.
Largely the same process is in action in Russia today. Whereas Germany felt slighted and unjustly treated after WWI modern Russia feels slighted and mistreated after the unsatisfactory (from their perspective) end to the Cold War. It is interesting that roughly a generation passed between 1918 and 1939 and roughly a generation has passed between 1989 and 2014. Russia was stripped of large swaths of territory in the wake of the fall of communism and Germany was stripped of territory, actually split into two separate blocks by the Danzig Corridor, in the wake of Versailles. The German people felt they were not defeated, (hence the popularity of the stab in the back myth), while many Russians today feel that they were betrayed from within by Gorbachev and Co. Hitler was an ideologue that fed on and amplified public perceptions of being unjustly handled by the Allies and Putin has done the same in Russia. As Germany expanded it was only weakly opposed by the Allied powers and we are seeing the same sort of reaction in the West to Putin’s actions.
History seems to be repeating itself before our eyes as yet another European ideologue and dictator forges ahead towards war and an attempt to dominate its neighbors. Is the West going to stand idly by and allow it to happen again until the cost of stopping it is immeasurably higher? The stakes are higher this time around because Russia is a nuclear power. The time to stop Putin and Russia is now and a serious demonstration of Western resolve would achieve without bloodshed what will costs thousands, if not millions of lives later on.
Has the West learned nothing from history other than that War is bad? There are things worse than war, and if the Western leadership does not find their spine soon they will see what those things are.
Periodic World Craziness Update # 28
The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and brinkmanship. Ukraine crisis: Police storm main Kiev ‘Maidan’ protest camp: The question on everyone’s mind: Is this the start of the Ukrainian Civil War? I would guess no but still put the likelihood of Ukraine descending into civil war around 50%. It would appear that the president is hoping he can wait the protesters out. A hope that appears misplaced since the coldest part of the winter is about over and warmer weather is on the horizon. The return of warm weather will actually bring out more protesters and if eh fails to dislodge the protesters now he … More after the Jump…
Periodic World Craziness Update # 27
The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and brinkmanship. Suicide Bomb Instructor Accidentally Detonates, Kills 21 Students In Iraq: I just about fell out of my chair laughing when I read this story. I was reminded of the moron one afternoon in January 2005 who came out of a side road racing towards me and my wingman’s Bradley’s as we were driving into Ad Dawr, Iraq. As he got to about 300m from our two vehicles his car suddenly disintegrated. Stuff like this is why Arabs make horrible fighters. North Korea warns South and U.S. over “provocative” drills: I start to get the feeling that … More after the Jump…
Periodic World Craziness Update # 26
The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and brinkmanship. China’s State Media Blame U.S. for Near Collision of Warships: I start to wonder how far and how fast China is willing to ratchet up tensions over the Senkaku’s? It seems that China is not unwilling to provoke an incident. What happens if they pull something like this in the future and the US retaliates by sinking a Chinese ship, maybe even their beloved waste of a carrier? Never mind that this whole incident is akin to Hitler blaming Poland for WWII. India-US row over arrest of diplomat Devyani Khobragade in New York escalates: though this piece … More after the Jump…
Periodic World Craziness Update # 25
The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and brinkmanship. Syrian Regime Chokes Off Food to Town That Was Gassed: What is the point of a siege if food is allowed through the siege lines? I will never understand modern bleeding hearts. They should be happy the government forces are not catapulting disease ridden corpses into the besieged area or trying to poison the water supply. Since when is war supposed to bloodless and not affect non-combatants? Update: Starving rebels eat lion from a Damascus zoo – Apparently the siege is doing what a siege is intended to do. I am not shocked. Further, the guys … More after the Jump…
Periodic World Craziness Update # 24
The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and brinkmanship. Syria: Al-Qaida group changes shape of civil war – It seems increasingly clear that the Syrian Civil War is starting to morph into a more regional conflict. I would expect that before next summer we will star to see more overt regional alignments and the conflict will start to spread. Give it another 18 months and we may very well start to see the fighting spread outside of Syria. I would expect that Lebanon would be the first foreign country to see significant fighting spread onto it’s territory although I can picture a scenario where Iraq is also … More after the Jump…
The Christ of Nations, 1920
In Polish history, war usually comes down to two conflicting scripts. From the Polish side, pushing geographical boundaries out in all directions, as far as possible. From the opposing side: eliminating the irritating roadblock begrudgingly acknowledged as “Poland.” This theme is perennial. It has not only been steel and fire that has determined if the land of the White Eagle was to be a flesh and blood state, or merely a state of mind; it was also the petitioning of the fighting spirit through ideological appeal. Literature in Poland has served such a purpose. Polish literature is not meant to appeal to outsiders. It is generally so nationalistic that neighboring … More after the Jump…
Periodic World Craziness Update # 22
The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and brinkmanship. U.S. weapons reaching Syrian rebels, Syria: nearly half rebel fighters are jihadists or hardline Islamists, says IHS Jane’s report: As far as foreign policy stupidity goes, arming the Syrian rebels is right up there with deposing the Diem brothers in South Vietnam was in 1963. I can think of no other act more guaranteed to put American weapons in the hands of America’s enemies unless we were to ship them directly to Al Qaeda. I am starting to seriously think Alex Jones has the right of the criminal stupidity and treason of the current administration. It is … More after the Jump…
Periodic World Craziness Update # 21
The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and brinkmanship. EGYPT: 36 KILLED IN PRISON TRUCK ESCAPE ATTEMPT: As predicted, Egypt appears to be slipping into a Civil War. How long until McCain starts saying we need to arm the MB there to protect them against the Military that is trying to keep Egypt secular if not exactly Democratic? In Egyptian village, Christian shops marked ahead of church attack: What do the Christians have to do with the military – Muslim Brotherhood conflict/argument? I see these attacks as the MB using the opportunity of the unrest to get rid of a minority they despise anyway. If the … More after the Jump…
Nanoassault
The best descriptive term I have yet heard for the President’s proposed attack on Syria is Nanoassault. It best describes the comedic effect of what we are now watching vis-a-vis Syria and chemical weapons.
Syria and the Latest Iteration of the Flawed Doctrine of R2P
I have the sinking feeling that events will outpace my monthly update so I wanted to throw this out there to stay ahead of the curve. Ironically, it seems I now have the answer to the question I posed in April of 2011, and the answer is 28 months. Exclusive: Syria strike due in days, West tells opposition – sources: The Admin is talking itself into a corner. here is also the strong possibility that they want to do this anyway in hopes of polishing up their Foreign Policy credibility. We all know how swimmingly their last foray into R2P in Libya went. What we are seeing here is the … More after the Jump…
Periodic World Craziness Update # 20
The latest month’s wackiness in the world of international relations, politics, and brinkmanship. US ‘considering military force in Syria’: If you read this article the headline is not exactly true, the Pentagon is enaged in contingency planning but is not preparing for imminent action. There are elements in Congress that would love to see it but as of now Obama is still being partially smart and resisting calls for direct US intervention, which would be a mistake no matter how you look at it. With little argument, House limits U.S. military involvement in Syria, Egypt: I wil believe it when I see it. The administration will do whatever they think … More after the Jump…
Book Review: The Great Degeneration by Niall Ferguson
If there is one book in the realm of history or political science any informed person needs to read this year then Niall Ferguson’s The Great Degeneration: How Institutions Decay and Economies Die is it. In this short book Ferguson goes right to the heart of why the West seems to be in decline and analyzes in short, incisive prose why that is so and perhaps what can be done to reverse it. The book itself is only 147 pages of text divided into an introduction, four topical chapters and a conclusion. There are twenty pages of notes but no bibliography or index, which is unusual for one of Dr. … More after the Jump…